By Mark Mayah & Adah Adukanya
President Bola Tinubu yesterday presented to the Senate and the House of Representatives at a joint session the proposed 2025 Appropriation Bill of N49.7 trillion, with a deficit of N13 trillion as new borrowings.
The budget is 3.87 per cent of the estimated Gross Domestic Product, GDP, as it is christened, ‘’Budget of Restoration, securing peace and building prosperity with a targeted revenue of N34.82 trillion to fund the projected aggregate expenditure of N47.9trillion.’’
The President, in his address to the National Assembly, noted that the budget reinforced the administration’s roadmap to secure peace, prosperity, and hope for a greater future for Nigeria.
“This budget christened, “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity,” strikes at the very core of our Renewed Hope Agenda and demonstrates our commitment to stabilizing the economy, improving lives, and repositioning our country for greater performance,’’ he said.
Key assumptions for Budget 2025
Recall that the 2025-2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework, MTEF, and Fiscal Strategy Paper, FSP, and its fiscal parameters, adopted an “an oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel for 2025, oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, an exchange rate of N1,400 to $1, and a GDP growth of 4.6 per cent.”
Tinubu, who began his speech at 12.41pm and ended at 1.11pm, said the budget is one of the reforms and transformation to consolidate the key policies of his administration.
Reeling out the progress made so far, he said global economic growth for Nigeria increased from 2.6% to estimated 3.5% growth.
The President, in the proposed budget, earmarked N4.91 trillion for defence and security; N4.06 trillion for infrastructure; N3.5 trillion for education; and N2.48 trillion for health .
According to him, N15.81 trillion is earmarked for debt servicing, with salient parameters of 2.06 million barrels of oil production per day, exchange rate of N1,500 to a US dollar, inflation rate of 15%, against the 34.6% it is now.
President Tinubu pegged the exchange rate at N1,500 to the dollar to ensure the smooth implementation of the 2025 budget, as this marks a reduction of about N200 from the current rate of N1,700 to the dollar.
He said: “The budget projects that inflation will decline from the current rate of 34.6% to 15% next year, while the exchange rate will improve from approximately N1,700 per dollar to N1,500. The base crude oil production assumption, is set at 2.06 million barrels per day.
“The projections are based on the following observations: reducing the importation of petroleum products, increasing exports of refined petroleum products, and achieving a bumper harvest, driven by enhanced security, which will reduce reliance on food imports. ‘’Additionally, we aim to increase foreign exchange inflows through foreign portfolio investments.
“Our crude oil output and exports will improve, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs.
“The numbers for our 2025 budget proposal tell a bold and exciting story of the direction we are taking to retool and revamp the socio-economic fabric of our society.
“In 2025, we are targeting N34.82 trillion in revenue to fund the budget. Government expenditure in the same year is projected to be N47.90 trillion, including N15.81 trillion for debt servicing.’’
‘Economic renewal underway’
He said the 2025 budget seeks to restore micro economic stability, foster increased growth, employment and human capital development.
Tinubu said: “The journey of economic renewal and institutional development, which we began 18 months ago as a nation, is very much underway. It is not a journey of our choosing but one we had to embark on for Nigeria to have a real chance at greatness. I thank every Nigerian for embarking on this journey of reforms and transformation with us.
“The road of reforms is now clearly upon us, and as the President of this blessed nation, I know this less-travelled road has not been easy, that there have been difficulties and sacrifices. They will not be in vain. And we must keep faith with the process to arrive at our collective, desired destination.
“We must build on the progress we have made in the past 18 months in restructuring our economy and ensuring it is strong enough to withstand the headwinds of any future shocks of the global downturn.
“The 2025 budget that I present today (yesterday) is one of restoration. It seeks to consolidate the key policies we have instituted to restructure our economy, boost human capital development, increase the volume of trade and investments, bolster oil and gas production, get our manufacturing sector humming again and ultimately increase the competitiveness of our economy.
“We do not intend to depart from this critical path to strengthen the Nigerian economy. Just as I believe in the resilience of our economy to withstand the current challenges, I also strongly believe in the resilience of the Nigerian people. Again, I summon the unstoppable Nigerian spirit to lead us on as we work to rebuild the fabric of our economy and existence.
“The improvements we witnessed in the 2024 budget have led us into the 2025 budget. The goals of advancing national security, creating economic opportunities, investing in our youthful population, infrastructure development, and national re-orientation form the core of the 2025 budget. But more than that, this will lay a solid foundation for Nigeria’s future growth trajectory”.
‘Reforms yielding results’
The President, who noted that the reforms instituted were beginning to yield results added that Nigerians will soon experience a better and more functional economy, and that these clear results of gradual recovery, among others, reflected the resilience of the economy and the impact of deliberate policy choices made from the outset.
“Global economic growth for the outgoing year 2024 was projected at 3.2 per cent, and against predictions, our country made significant progress. Our economy grew by 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, up from 2.54 per cent in the third quarter of 2023.
“Our foreign reserves now stand at nearly $42 billion, providing a robust buffer against external shocks. Our rising exports are reflected in the current trade surplus, which now stands at N5.8 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS,’’ Tinubu said.
He further explained that his administration attained remarkable milestones in implementing the 2024 budget, saying “in 2024, we achieved: N14.55 trillion in revenue, meeting 75 per cent of our target as of the third quarter; N21.60 trillion in expenditure, representing 85 per cent of our target, also in the third quarter.
“While challenges persist, we improved revenue collection and fulfilled key obligations. The transformational effects of this on our economy are gradually being felt.’’
He stated that the budgetary allocations reflected the administration’s strategic priorities.
The 2025 budget, the President said, sought to restore macroeconomic stability, enhance the business environment, foster inclusive growth, employment, and poverty reduction and promote equitable income distribution and human capital development.
He said: “The numbers for our 2025 budget proposal tell a bold and exciting story of the direction we are taking to retool and revamp the socio-economic fabric of our society. In 2025, we are targeting N34.82 trillion in revenue to fund the budget.
“Government expenditure in the same year is projected to be N47.90 trillion, including N15.81 trillion for debt servicing. A total of N13.08 trillion or 3.89 per cent of GDP will make up the budget deficit. This is an ambitious but necessary budget to secure our future.
“The budget projects inflation will decline from the current rate of 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent next year, while the exchange rate will improve from approximately N1,700 per US dollar to N1,500, and a base crude oil production assumption of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd).’’
These projections, the President said, were based on reduced importation of petroleum products, alongside increased export of finished petroleum products; bumper harvests, driven by enhanced security, reducing reliance on food imports; increased foreign exchange inflows through foreign portfolio investments; and higher crude oil output and exports, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs.
‘Drivers of budgetary allocations’
Tinubu said the budgetary allocations were informed by the commitment of his administration to the security of lives and property, infrastructural development, education and healthcare delivery.
“Our budgetary allocations underscore this administration’s strategic priorities, particularly in advancing the Renewed Hope Agenda and achieving its developmental objectives.
“Highlights of the 2025 budget allocations include defence and security, N4.91 trillion; infrastructure; N4.06 trillion; health, N2.48 trillion; and education, N3.52 trillion.”
While soliciting the support of the lawmakers and Nigerians in addressing the country’s challenges, Tinubu stated: “The time for lamentation is over; this is a time to act, a time to support and promote greater investment in the private sector.
“A time for our civil servants to faithfully execute our policies and programmes. It is a time for every Nigerian to look hopefully towards a brighter future because a new day has dawned for us as a nation.
“As your President, I remain committed and resolute to continue to lead the charge.
“This 2025 budget proposal lays the foundation for peace, prosperity, and much needed hope. It is the plan through which a Nigeria where every citizen can dream, work, and thrive in safety can be achieved.”
Earlier, President Tinubu assured the present senators and members of the House of Representatives of re-election in 2027.
He said: “You mean 10th Assembly? I wrote 11th Assembly, you are all re-elected.”
Meanwhile, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abbas Tajudeen, has said the government needs to reflect on the fiscal realities of Nigeria’s economy, especially the budget-population ratio of the country, when Nigeria was compared with other countries in Africa.
Abbas said this in his vote of thanks, after presentation of the budget noting that the Tinubu administration had taken bold and decisive steps to reform the economy in the past 18 months, stressing that removing fuel subsidy, unifying foreign exchange rates, and introducing innovative economic policies had laid a solid foundation for sustainable growth and development.
He said while these reforms had demanded short-term sacrifices, they wereacts of courage and patriotism, adding that history had shown that transformative progress often begins with difficult decisions.
He cited examples from China’s market reforms, India’s liberalisation, and South Korea’s industrialisation which, he stated, affirmed the enduring benefits of such bold action.
“These lessons inspire confidence that Nigeria’s ongoing reforms will foster economic growth, reduce poverty, and ensure long-term prosperity,” he stated.
The speaker also stated that the Tinubu administration’s reforms had “disrupted the status quo, sparking resistance from vested interests.
“Yet, these courageous measures underscore your resolve to prioritise the welfare of Nigerians.”
Budget ambitious, but commendable — Speaker
The speaker noted that the proposed 2025 budget of N49.7 trillion, a 35 per cent increase over 2024, was “ambitious and commendable.”
He also said the projections of 4.6 per cent Gross Domestic Product, GDP growth, a crude oil price of $75 per barrel, an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar, and oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day were bold but achievable.
He added: “However, Nigeria’s fiscal realities warrant critical reflection. Despite being Africa’s most populous nation with over 220 million people, our 2024 national budget of $36.7 billion remains modest, compared to countries like South Africa, with a budget of $160 billion for its 60 million citizens; Egypt, with $110 billion for 110 million people; Algeria, with $60 billion for 45 million people; and Morocco, allocating $50 billion for its 37 million residents.
While stating that stabilising prices, boosting agricultural productivity, expanding infrastructure, and investing in education, healthcare, and security remained paramount priorities, Abbas added that to strengthen national unity and build trust, it was essential for the government to communicate its achievements effectively to the Nigerian people.
“As we approach 2025, we must embrace the realities before us with determination,” the speaker said.
He assured President Tinubu that the National Assembly was fully committed to supporting the successful implementation of the 2025 budget, saying “this is not merely your budget, it is a national project requiring collaboration across all arms of government.”
Tinubu’s budget hopeless, shady, disingenuous — PDP
Reacting to the budget yesterday, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, described it as anti-people which, if implemented, would plunge the nation “deeper into the abyss of insecurity, poverty and hopelessness.”
National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Debo Ologunagba, in a statement in Abuja, said the party asserted that the budget as presented further, confirmed the insensitivity of the Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC) administration towards the plight of Nigerians.
According to the party, the budget made no meaningful provisions and investments for critical productive sectors of agriculture and food production, electricity, petroleum and gas, small and medium scale enterprises, which are the real drivers of the national economy.
Ologunagba stated: “President Tinubu dashed the hope of millions of suffering Nigerians who expected him to use the 2025 budget to make strategic provisions that will lead to the reduction in the cost of fuel, food items, electricity tariff and other essential goods and services that have direct bearing on the wellbeing of the people.
“The PDP is dismayed that instead, the budget speech was an assault on the sensibility of Nigerians when Mr. President claimed that the 2024 budget recorded a bogus 85% performance without a breakdown of the component between recurrent and capital expenditure.
“Further distressing is President Tinubu’s claim that the economy improved under his watch even in the face of acute poverty, excruciating hardship, comatose infrastructure, collapsed productive sectors, deteriorating value of the Naira, alarming 34.6% inflation and 40% unemployment rates in the last 18 months as validated by official figures.
“Equally ludicrous is Mr. President’s voodoo economy claim that the 2025 budget will reduce the current inflation rate from 34.6% to 15% and improve the value of the Naira from approximately N1,700 to the Dollar to N1,500 without any indices for tangible investment in the productive sector and in the face of a staggering N134.3 trillion ($91.3 billion) debt accumulated under the APC watch.
“The PDP invites Nigerians to note that the President in his speech failed to disclose the Capital and Recurrent profiles of the 2025 budget.
“This has heightened public apprehension on the issue of full disclosure and transparency in government spending under the current administration.
“Given the crippled national productive sector, it is clear that with the N47.9 trillion expenditure including N15.8 trillion provision for Debt Services, the projected N34.8 trillion revenue with N13 trillion deficit will be financed by excruciating taxes and levies on already impoverished citizens and companies operating in the country.
“The 2025 budget as proposed will shrink our national business environment, further cripple the productive sector, discourage domestic and foreign investors, lead to further depreciation of the Naira, worsen unemployment and inflation rate and push millions more into abject poverty and invariably heighten insecurity.
“The PDP therefore calls on the National Assembly not to pass the 2025 budget as presented but activate its legislative powers as guaranteed under Sections 80, 81 and 82 of the 1999 Constitution to rejig the budget and make provisions that are critical and pivotal to the growth of the economy and the welfare of Nigerians.”
